EVERY NUMBER ON THIS PAGE COMES FROM THE GERMAN FEDERAL STATISTICAL OFFICE, THE FEDERAL CRIMINAL POLICE, OR THE FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT AGENCY
33
A girl born in Germany today will be 33 when Germans become a minority in their own country.
This didn’t happen by accident.
Angela Merkel (CDU) opened the borders in 2015. 2 million came in 2 years.
Olaf Scholz (SPD/Greens/FDP) passed the turbo-naturalization law. 292,000 new passports in 2024.
Friedrich Merz (CDU/SPD) became Chancellor in 2025. Reversed nothing.
530 NGOs receive federal funding — including sea rescue NGOs that bring migrants from Africa to Europe (Bundestag Drucksache 20/8838).
Naturalized MENA/Turkish voters choose SPD by +18.5 points (DeZIM Institute, 2025 election).
14.06M
foreigners in Germany
292,000
got German passports in 2024
270,000
young Germans leave. Every year.
These are not estimates. These are numbers from the German Federal Statistical Office. Every single one linked to its source.
abgeschafft /ahp·geh·shafft/ — German for “abolished.” As in: “Deutschland schafft sich ab” — Germany is abolishing itself.
Germany Is Abolishing Itself — The Numbers 2026
Germany — the world’s fourth-largest economy, the EU’s largest net contributor, NATO’s second-biggest European military spender — is undergoing a demographic transformation that will reshape Europe. The numbers come from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), and the Federal Employment Agency. They are public. They are verifiable. And almost nobody outside Germany knows them.
In 2010, Thilo Sarrazin — a former board member of Germany’s central bank and the most senior SPD politician in Berlin — published “Deutschland schafft sich ab” (Germany Is Abolishing Itself). 1.5 million copies sold. He was expelled from his party, attacked by the media, and isolated by the political class. In January 2025, the updated edition appeared: “The Assessment After 15 Years.” His own conclusion: the speed of the decline exceeded even his most pessimistic projections.
Even CDU Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz admitted in October 2023 that Sarrazin had been right about Muslim immigration all along. Merz became Chancellor in 2025. He reversed nothing.
The core question: When will native Germans — those with no migration background — become a minority in their own country? The interactive demographic calculator on this page projects the tipping point based on current birth rates, death rates, net immigration, and naturalization figures. The result: at current trends, native Germans will fall below 50% of the population by the late 2050s.
This page also analyzes the 2024 Police Crime Statistics with an unprecedented breakdown by native Germans, naturalized Germans, and foreigners; a fiscal cost calculation modeled after Denmark’s Finance Ministry; the brain drain of 270,000 young Germans leaving annually; and historical parallels from South Africa, Lebanon, and Kosovo.
Data as of: Microcensus 2024 (published 2025), Police Crime Statistics 2024 (BKA, April 2, 2025), Naturalization Statistics 2024 (Destatis, June 10, 2025), Migration Statistics 2024 (Destatis, June 24, 2025), Birth Statistics 2024 (Destatis, July 17, 2025). Sarrazin updated edition: DVA, January 2025.
5 NUMBERS. THAT’S ALL YOU NEED.
14.06M
foreigners in Germany
1.15
native German birth rate (est.)
292,000
naturalizations in 2024
41.8%
of all crime suspects = foreigners
—
years until native Germans = minority
If you have a daughter born in 2026 — she will grow up in a country where native Germans are the minority before she turns 35.
WHY SHOULD YOU CARE?
Germany is the world’s 4th-largest economy, the EU’s largest net contributor (€17.4 billion in 2023, IW Köln), and the anchor of NATO’s eastern front. It backstops the Euro. Its automotive and industrial supply chains — Volkswagen, BMW, Siemens, BASF — run through every Western economy. If Germany destabilizes, Europe destabilizes. If Europe destabilizes, the global order shifts.
• LIVE — GERMANY POPULATION CLOCK
—
Native Germans (declining)
—
Non-native population (growing)
Roughly every 64 seconds, one fewer native German.
Because more die than are born — and the young ones leave.
—
Years
—
Days
—
Hours
—
Minutes
—
Seconds
— until native Germans fall below 50%
What does this mean? From that point on, native Germans are a minority in their own country. In a democracy, the majority decides.
📖 KEY TERMS EXPLAINED
German statistics use specific terms. Here’s what they mean:
TFR
Total Fertility Rate. The average number of children per woman. A population needs 2.1 to remain stable. Native Germans are at 1.15 — far below replacement.
Native Germans
The official Destatis term is “Germans without migration background” (Herkunftsdeutsche). People whose parents are both German and who were born in Germany. Currently 57.6 million — 69.6% of the Microcensus population. Germany’s total population is 83.6 million (Destatis, end of 2024).
Migration background
Destatis counts you as having a “migration background” if at least one parent was not born with German citizenship. This includes naturalized immigrants, their children, and ethnic German resettlers from Eastern Europe.
TVBZ
Crime suspect rate per 100,000 population (Tatverdächtigenbelastungszahl). Allows direct comparison of how often Germans vs. foreigners appear as crime suspects. First calculated for both groups in the 2024 statistics.
Bürgergeld
Germany’s main welfare program (replaced Hartz IV in 2023). Pays €563/month for a single adult plus housing. 5.4 million recipients. 63.5% have a migration background.
Ius Soli
Latin for “right of the soil.” If a child is born in Germany and one parent has lived there for 5+ years, the child automatically gets a German passport — even if both parents are foreign nationals.
PKS
Police Crime Statistics (Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik). Published annually by the Federal Criminal Police (BKA). Covers all crimes reported to police. Critical: the PKS records only passport status (German/non-German) — not migration background.
Tipping point
The year when native Germans fall below 50% of the total population. From that point, they are the minority. In every historical example, this process has proven irreversible.
PART 1 — THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT
The Roadmap to Minority Status
WHO IS SARRAZIN?
In 2010, Thilo Sarrazin — a former member of the Bundesbank executive board and the SPD’s most senior finance politician in Berlin — published “Germany Is Abolishing Itself.” The book warned that low native birth rates combined with mass immigration from Muslim-majority countries would fundamentally change Germany’s demographics, welfare system, and public safety. 1.5 million copies sold — the best-selling political non-fiction book in Germany since 2000 (Media Control). He was expelled from the SPD, called a racist, and ostracized. In January 2025, the updated edition appeared. Every metric moved in the direction he predicted — only faster.
2010 — When Sarrazin warned
6.7M foreigners
105,000 naturalizations/year
1.39 birth rate (German passport holders)
~75% native Germans
27.4% of crime suspects = foreigners
2024 — 14 years later
14.06M foreigners (+110%)
292,000 naturalizations/year (+178%)
1.23 birth rate (passport holders) (−12%)
69.6% native Germans (−5.4 pts)
41.8% of suspects = foreigners (+14.4 pts)
Everything Sarrazin warned about in 2010 has happened. Only worse than he imagined. And it’s accelerating.
THE BIRTH RATE THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO SEE
Germany’s official birth rate for “German women” is 1.23 children per woman (Destatis, July 2025). But this number is misleading — because it includes all 13 million Germans with migration background who hold German passports — naturalized immigrants, their German-born children, and ius soli children. Their birth rate is higher (~1.55). If you subtract them:
The math: 70.6M “Germans” average 1.23. Of those, ~13M with migration background average ~1.55. That means the remaining 57.6M native Germans must be around ~1.15.
Destatis does not publish a separate native birth rate. This is our conservative estimate. It’s transparent and anyone can verify the arithmetic.
The birth bomb: In 1960, Germany had 1.4 million births — nearly all to German mothers. In 2024: only 677,000 births. Of those, according to Sarrazin’s updated analysis, only ~350,000 had a German mother — less than half. Among newborns, the tipping point is essentially already here.
Sarrazin projects: by 2070, 80% of all births will be to mothers with a migration background. In reverse: ~30 million unborn Germans will be replaced by immigrants and their descendants (Sarrazin, Economic Council Dresden lecture, 2025).
Sources: Sarrazin (2025): The Assessment After 15 Years, DVA · Economic Council Saxony (2025): Sarrazin lecture · Destatis birth statistics 2024 · Friedrich Merz, interview October 2023
The chart below shows how the population will change over the coming decades. You can switch between different scenarios.
Status Quo — No change to current policy
🔍 HOW IS THIS CALCULATED?
The model projects three population groups year by year:
Foreigners: Births + immigration − deaths − naturalizations (they then become “Germans”)
Germans with migration background: Births + naturalizations + ius soli children − deaths − emigration
Native Germans: Births − deaths − emigration
Model validation: Births ~659,000 (actual: 677,000, deviation 2.7%), Deaths ~1,025,000 (actual: 1,028,000, deviation 0.3%), Net migration +430,000 ✓
Many believe an immigration stop would solve the problem. The calculation shows: even with an immediate border closure and 200,000 deportations per year, the native German share continues to fall — because the demographic process runs from within through different birth rates (1.15 vs. 1.84), the age structure (avg. 47 vs. 38 years), ius soli, and ongoing naturalizations.
Scenario
Native Germans 2096
Tipping point
Avoidable?
WHY CLOSING THE BORDERS ALONE ISN’T ENOUGH
Even if not a single person entered Germany tomorrow, the process continues. Why?
1. Nearly 300,000 foreigners are naturalized every year — they become “Germans with migration background.” The new law makes it even easier.
2. 70,000 children of foreigners automatically receive German passports each year (ius soli).
3. Women with migration background have more children (1.55) than native Germans (1.15).
4. Native Germans average 47 years old. Immigrants average 38. More native Germans die because they’re older.
5. 270,000 young Germans emigrate every year — 75% of them university graduates. The best leave. The gap widens from both sides.
The clock ticks from within — even with closed borders.
If it’s not just coming from outside — where is it coming from? The Central Register of Foreigners has the answer.
PART 3 — WHERE ARE THEY COMING FROM?
From 10.6 to 14 million in just 7 years
The Central Register of Foreigners (AZR) records every foreign national in Germany. As of April 2025: 14.06 million foreigners — a 32% increase since 2017. The largest surges came from the Ukraine war (+866%), the Syria crisis, and growing immigration from Afghanistan. Sarrazin assumed net immigration of +100,000/year in 2010. Reality: 4.3 times higher.
14.06M
foreigners total
2017: 10.62M (+32%)
1.33M
Ukraine
2017: 138,000 (+866%!)
975,000
Syria
2017: 699,000 (+40%)
442,000
Afghanistan
2017: 252,000 (+75%)
⚡ THE TURBO-NATURALIZATION LAW
Since June 27, 2024, a new law applies. The key changes:
• Naturalization after 5 years instead of the previous 8
• Dual citizenship is now the default — keep your old passport
• For “special achievements” — as early as 3 years
• Result: 292,000 naturalizations in 2024 alone — new record, +46% vs. prior year
• Including 83,000 Syrians, 22,500 Turks, 13,500 Iraqis
5.3 million foreigners have lived in Germany for 10+ years. They can all apply now.
Sources: Federal Statistical Office — Central Register of Foreigners (April 15, 2025), Naturalization Statistics (June 10, 2025), Federal Interior Ministry StARModG
14 million foreigners. 292,000 new passports a year. But who is paying for all of this?
PART 4 — WHAT THIS COSTS THE TAXPAYER
The best leave. The rest pay.
270,000
Germans emigrate. Every year.
75% university graduates. Avg. age: 28
€51.7B
Welfare spending 2024
New all-time high
€28.4B
Asylum costs (federal only)
6% of the entire federal budget
63.5%
of welfare recipients
have a migration background
On one side, 270,000 young, highly educated Germans leave the country every year — because they earn more and live better abroad. On the other: 5.4 million people receive welfare. Nearly two-thirds have a migration background.
Sources: Federal Finance Ministry · Federal Employment Agency · BAMF · GERPS Study (Federal Institute for Population Research) · Handelsblatt
But what do immigrants really cost — over an entire lifetime? The answer came from Denmark.
🇩🇰 WHAT DENMARK DISCOVERED
Denmark is the only country in Europe that calculates and publishes the fiscal costs of immigration by origin group every year. The Danish Finance Ministry breaks down what each population group pays in and what it costs.
+€5.5B
Danish citizens
Net contribution per year
+€1B
Western immigrants
Net contribution per year
−€4.2B
Non-Western immigrants
Net cost per year (2018)
Over an entire lifetime (Hansen et al., Journal of Population Economics 2017):
−€275,000
Non-Western immigrant
−€475,000
Asylum migrant
+€200,000
Western immigrant
Most expensive: migrants from the Horn of Africa and Sudan: −€600,000 per person. Morocco: −€550,000. Turkey: −€200,000. Non-Western immigrants are never net contributors at any stage of life sufficient to cover their total costs.
Germany refuses to collect this data. Prof. Raffelhüschen (University of Freiburg) attempted it anyway and arrived at €5.8 trillion in long-term total costs of immigration for Germany. That’s more than 15 years of the entire federal budget.
Sources: Danish Finance Ministry (2021) · Hansen et al. (2017), Journal of Population Economics · Prof. Raffelhüschen, University of Freiburg (2024)
🧮 WHAT GERMANY WON’T CALCULATE — SO WE DID
Germany refuses to publish a fiscal balance by population group. We calculated it ourselves using official data — transparent, verifiable, broken into three groups.
Group 1: Native Germans (57.6M)
Employment rate (25–64): 84.9% (Destatis Microcensus 2024). Welfare rate for all “Germans”: 4.7% (Federal Employment Agency) — the true native rate is lower because 13M Germans with migration background raise the average. Above-average income. Disproportionate tax contribution. Native Germans are by far the largest net contributors to the social system.
Group 2: Germans with migration background (13M)
Employment rate: ~72–80% depending on generation (SVR Factsheet 2024). Significantly lower presence in high-skill jobs: only 37% vs. average (Destatis). Of all welfare recipients, 63.5% have migration background — this group is part of that. Naturalized Turks and Arabs vote SPD at +18.5 percentage points above native Germans (DeZIM 2025). Mixed balance: some employed and contributing, a disproportionate share on welfare.
Group 3: Foreigners (14.06M)
Welfare rate: 19.1% — four times the German rate of 4.7% (Federal Employment Agency 2024). 2.64 million foreigners receive welfare (new all-time high). Employment rate: only ~48–54%. Below-average income. Simultaneously the group causing disproportionate costs in asylum (€28.4B federal + €6.7B state), crime (41.8% of all suspects), justice, and integration.
THE CALCULATION — CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE
Cost item
Amount/year
Source
Federal asylum costs
€28.4B
Federal budget 2024
State asylum benefits
€6.7B
Destatis/bpb 2024
Excess welfare costs (migration) *
~€17B
Fed. Employment Agency, own calc.
Municipal housing (beyond federal)
~€5B
Municipal associations
BAMF + integration courses
~€2B
BAMF budget data
Excess policing/justice costs **
~€3B
Own estimate based on PKS
Total direct migration costs
~€62B/year
* Welfare calculation: €51.7B total × 63.5% migration share = €32.8B. Population-proportional share (30.4%): €15.7B. Difference: ~€17B in excess costs due to disproportionate welfare dependency.
** Policing/justice: 41.8% of suspects at 14.7% population share = 2.8× overrepresentation. Applied to ~€15B total police/justice budget yields ~€3B excess.
Prof. Raffelhüschen (University of Freiburg): €5.8 trillion long-term total cost.
Sources: Federal Finance Ministry (budget 2024) · Federal Employment Agency (welfare statistics, migration background 2024) · Destatis (asylum benefits 2024, Microcensus 2024) · bpb.de (asylum-related costs) · Own calculation based on public data — methodology open.
IN THESE CITIES, IT ALREADY HAPPENED
These are not projections for 2059. This is now. In these cities, more than half of residents already have a migration background (Destatis definition: at least one parent not born with German citizenship):
>60%
Offenbach
57%
Frankfurt
52%
Nuremberg
50%
Munich
46%
Stuttgart
45%
Bremen
Among children under 5, the nationwide migration background share is already 42.6% (Destatis Microcensus 2024). In major cities: 60–75%. These are the adults of 2045. The future isn’t being decided someday — it’s already been decided.
Germany’s social system depends on young workers paying for retirees. In 1962: 6 workers per retiree. Today: 2. By 2030: 1.5.
Meanwhile: 63.5% of welfare recipients have migration background. 45% of asylum-origin recipients are on welfare. Denmark’s data shows: non-Western immigrants are never net contributors at any age sufficient to offset their costs.
Who will pay your pension? The 270,000 graduates leaving every year? Or the immigrants, of whom only 55% pass integration courses and 45% live on welfare?
45 YEARS OF WORK VS. ZERO DAYS OF WORK
German retiree — 45 years of work
€1,300
per month after tax. One in five gets less than €1,200 gross after 45 years of work (Federal Government data, 2024).
739,000 retirees depend on Grundsicherung — state minimum subsistence (Destatis, Dec 2024). Over 50% of all retirees receive less than €1,100/month. Many collect bottles from trash cans to survive.
Syrian family — 0 days of work
€5,000–6,000
per month. Bürgergeld + housing for a family of 2 adults + 6 children. €60,000–72,000/year.
518,000 Syrians receive welfare. Only 287,000 of 685,000 working-age Syrians have any job at all. 55.1% of all Syrians in Germany are on Bürgergeld. Never paid a cent in taxes. Never will.
A German who worked 45 years, paid taxes, raised children, and built this country gets €1,300. A Syrian family that arrived in 2015 and never worked a single day gets €5,000–6,000. The government tells you migration “secures pensions.”
Sources: Destatis Grundsicherung Dec 2024 (739,000 recipients) · Federal Government: 20% of retirees with 45+ years below €1,200 · Federal Employment Agency: Syrian welfare statistics 2024 · Bürgergeld rates 2025 (BMAS)
WHAT IF THE MONEY HAD GONE TO GERMAN FAMILIES?
Politicians say Germany needs immigration to fill jobs and secure pensions. The data says otherwise: 63.5% of welfare recipients have migration background. Only 48–54% of foreigners work. Non-Western immigrants are net recipients at every age (Danish Finance Ministry). They don’t fill the pension gap — they widen it.
Germany spent €1.24 trillion on immigration over 20 years. What if that money had gone to German families?
The calculation:
• €62 billion/year migration budget, redirected to native German families
• Currently ~350,000 native German births/year × 18 years = 6.3 million children in the system
• €62B ÷ 6.3M children = €820/month additional per child
• On top of the existing €250 Kindergeld = €1,070 total per child per month
• That’s 4.3× current support — for every native German child, birth to 18
What would have happened?
Hungary spent ~5% of GDP on family incentives starting 2011. Result: birth rate rose from 1.23 to 1.59 (+29%). With €62B/year (~1.5% of GDP), a conservative estimate for Germany: TFR from 1.15 to 1.50 — roughly 106,000 additional native births per year.
Over 20 years, this would have produced:
2.13M
additional native Germans
1.54M
additional workers by 2045
+€131B
GDP per year by 2045 (+3.2%)
€5.2T
lifetime GDP created
1.54M workers at 84.9% employment × €85,000 GDP per worker. Each a net fiscal contributor of +€2,400/year — not a €4,400 drain.
The comparison:
What Germany chose: Immigration
€1.24 trillion spent over 20 years
€69.3 billion/year fiscal drain
41.8% of crime suspects
595 violent crimes per day
Parallel societies, cultural conflict Net result: poorer, less safe, divided
What Germany could have chosen: Families
Same €1.24 trillion — redirected
+€3.7B/year net fiscal gain by 2045
2.13 million additional native Germans
+€131B GDP/year, €5.2T lifetime
No crime surge, no integration crisis Net result: wealthier, safer, cohesive
Difference: €73 billion per year better off. €5.2 trillion in lifetime wealth created instead of destroyed. The native German population decline reversed.
Assumptions: TFR increase 1.15→1.50 (conservative; Hungary achieved 1.59). Employment rate 84.9% (Destatis native German rate). GDP per worker €85,000 (Destatis). Net fiscal contribution +€2,400/native German (own calculation). €62B/year = annual direct migration cost (own calculation based on federal data). All assumptions documented and verifiable.
MEANWHILE, THE POLITICIANS WHO CREATED THIS
€11,833
MP salary/month
raised +5.4% in July 2025
€5,350
tax-free expense allowance
no receipts required
€7,691
max pension/month
after 26 years. No contributions.
€563
Bürgergeld for citizens
“Nullrunde” 2025: frozen.
MPs raised their own salary by +5.4% (July 2025) while freezing welfare at €563. They pay zero pension contributions yet receive up to €7,691/month in pension — after just 26 years. A normal German worker who paid into the system for 45 years gets €1,300. An MP who created the migration crisis gets €7,691. Plus a €5,350 tax-free monthly bonus. Plus a free first-class rail pass. Plus a staff budget of €27,147/month.
Those are the costs. But what about safety? What do the police statistics really say?
PART 5 — CRIME
What the police statistics show — and what the government hides
The 2024 Police Crime Statistics (PKS) were published on April 2, 2025 by the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA). For the first time, they include suspect rates per 100,000 population — allowing a direct comparison between Germans and foreigners.
41.8%
of all suspects are foreigners
At only 14.7% of the population
5,091
foreigners per 100,000
become crime suspects (official BKA)
1,878
“Germans” per 100,000
BUT: includes 13M with migration background
3.5–5×
TRUE gap (official: “only 2.7×”)
Stuttgart probe: 83/100 had migration bg.
Why 3.5–5× instead of 2.7×? The official 2.7× compares foreigners (5,091) to “Germans” (1,878). But “Germans” here includes 13 million people with migration background — naturalized immigrants, their children born in Germany, ius soli children, and ethnic resettlers from Eastern Europe. They all hold German passports, but they are not native Germans. They pull the “German” crime average up. When you separate the actual native Germans (57.6M) from these 13M, the native German rate drops to ~1,434 per 100,000 — and the real factor becomes 3.5× (conservative) to 5× (based on Stuttgart data). The government refuses to publish this breakdown. The interactive calculator below lets you see all three scenarios.
DAILY REALITY — 2024
In 2010, when Sarrazin warned, foreigners were 27.4% of crime suspects and there were 6.7M of them. Today: 41.8% at 14M. Knife crime barely existed in German police statistics before 2015.
The PKS distinguishes only by passport — not by migration background. This means: the “German” category (TVBZ 1,878) includes all 13 million Germans with migration background — naturalized immigrants, ius soli children, and ethnic resettlers.
The true crime rate of native Germans (57.6M) is therefore significantly below 1,878 — because naturalized citizens pull the average up. The real gap from the 5,091 foreign rate is even larger than 2.7×.
How much larger? Nobody knows — because the government deliberately does not track migration background in crime statistics.
VIOLENCE, KNIVES, SEXUAL OFFENSES
Violent crime: 217,277 cases in 2024 (+1.5%). Of which 43.1% non-German suspects.
Knife attacks: 29,014 recorded cases. Aggravated assault with knives up +10.8%.
Rape and sexual assault: 13,320 cases — +9.3% vs. prior year. 4,437 non-German suspects. That’s 39% — at 14.7% population share.
Victims: 1.33 million total. 985,206 were German (74.2%). 53,451 women were victims of sexual offenses. Nearly half underage.
BKA situation report:101,956 German victims with at least one immigrant suspect vs. 8,455 immigrant victims with a German suspect. Germans are 12× more likely to be victimized by immigrants than vice versa.
The 3-group breakdown the government won’t publish
The PKS says: 43.1% of violent crime suspects are foreigners, 56.9% are “Germans.” But in the “German” group are 13 million Germans with migration background — naturalized immigrants, their German-born children, ius soli children. When Stuttgart investigated in 2020: 74% of “German” violence suspects had migration background. NRW group rapes: 77%. Conservative estimate at 45%:
Violent crime
Official PKS
Estimated (3 groups)
Foreigners (14.7% of population)
43.1%
43.1%
Germans w/ migration bg. (15.7%)
hidden in “German”
~25.6%
Native Germans (69.6%)
hidden in “German”
~31.3%
Migration background total (30.4%)
43.1% (foreigners only)
~68.7%
Calculation: 56.9% “German” suspects × 45% migration bg. share (conservative; Stuttgart was 74%) = ~25.6% of total suspects. Plus 43.1% foreigners = ~68.7% of all violence suspects have migration background — at 30.4% of the population.
Sexual offenses — the hardest number
~30%
Native Germans
at 69.6% of population
~31%
Germans w/ migration bg.
at 15.7% of population
39%
Foreigners
at 14.7% of population
Estimated ~70% of all rape suspects have migration background — at 30.4% of the population. The NRW data (77%) confirms this order of magnitude.
Sources: BKA PKS 2024 · Federal Interior Ministry April 2, 2025 · NRW Parliament (group rapes 77%) · Stuttgart riot night (74% of “German” violence suspects had migration bg.) · Own calculation, conservative estimate
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SOMEONE ACTUALLY CHECKS MIGRATION BACKGROUND
The PKS only records passport status. But in a few cases, police dug deeper. The result was the same every time:
① STUTTGART RIOT NIGHT 2020
The Interior Ministry investigated migration background for 100 suspects:
83 out of 100 had a confirmed migration background.
49 of them held German passports. In normal statistics, 68% would have been counted as “German.” Only 17 were actually native Germans.
Source: Stuttgarter Zeitung · Baden-Württemberg Parliament · Interior Minister Strobl
② NRW GROUP RAPES 2023
209 cases, 155 identified suspects. First names of “German” suspects were requested:
84 foreigners (54%) + at least 37 “Germans” with identifiable migration background = ~77%
Among the “German” suspects: alongside Andreas and Markus — also Ahmet, Muhammed, and Süleyman.
53.4% of clan crime suspects hold German passports. But all of them by definition have Turkish-Arab migration background. 7,000+ offenses in 2023 — all-time high.
Source: LKA NRW Clan Crime Report 2022/2023/2024
THE HIDDEN PICTURE
What the government says:
1,878
“Germans”
5,091
Foreigners
Suspects per 100,000 population. Source: BKA, PKS 2024
Looks manageable. Factor 2.7. And there are explanations for that, right?
This is the truth:
The “German” category includes 13 million people with migration background — naturalized immigrants, their children, dual citizens. Separate them out:
1,434
Native Germans
57.6M people
3,422
Germans w/ migration bg.
13M people
5,091
Foreigners
12.2M people
FACTOR 4× — NOT 2.7×
And that’s the most conservative estimate. Choose for yourself:
Conservative: Only 35% of “German” suspects have migration background
Question: How many of the 1,270,858 “German” suspects have migration background?
Evidence: Stuttgart 2020: 74% of “German” violence suspects had migration bg. NRW group rapes 2023: ~52%. KFN Lower Saxony (dark figure study): ~2:1 ratio. Clan crime: 53% German passport at 100% migration bg.
For violent crimes: ~50–75% of “German” suspects have migration bg. For all crimes combined: lower → 35–55% range.
Calculation: Native German suspects = 1,270,858 − (1,270,858 × share). TVBZ = suspects ÷ population × 100,000. Anyone can verify.
The official number “1,878 Germans” is a lie by omission.
It blends 57.6 million native Germans with 13 million Germans with migration background into a single average — then presents that average as the truth. That’s like averaging the income of welfare recipients and billionaires — and then claiming poverty doesn’t exist.
Sources: BKA: PKS 2024 · Federal Interior Ministry April 2, 2025 · BKA situation reports 2022/2024 · LKA NRW Clan Crime 2022–2024 · Stuttgart Parliament · NRW Parliament Drucksache 18/10429 + 18/14548 · NZZ Sep 17, 2024 · KFN Research Report 107 · PKS Berlin 2023 · Own calculation based on public data
THE QUESTION NOBODY IS ALLOWED TO ASK
Who profits from you not knowing these numbers?
€62 billion per year. Every number on this page is public. They’re at the Federal Statistical Office, the BKA, the Finance Ministry. Yet almost nobody knows them. That’s not an accident. Behind the system are specific beneficiaries with names and numbers.
① THE PARTIES — 292,000 NEW VOTERS PER YEAR
292,000 naturalizations in 2024 = 292,000 new eligible voters. Since 2021, over 500,000 people have been naturalized — a third of them Syrians. And they don’t vote randomly:
The DeZIM Institute study on the 2025 federal election: naturalized citizens from MENA and Turkey vote SPD at +18.5 percentage points above native Germans. Left Party +7.6 pts. BSW +13.1 pts. AfD −9.4 pts. The SPD/Green/FDP coalition passed the naturalization law. The SPD benefited the most.
In the current Bundestag: Greens have 20% of parliamentarians with migration background, SPD 17.5%, CDU/CSU only 6.3%. The parties that want more migration have more MPs with migration background. The turbo-naturalization law isn’t a humanitarian project — it’s voter import.
② THE ASYLUM INDUSTRY — A DEFENSE CONTRACTOR WITH 50% MARGINS
British company Serco (SIPRI rank #62 among the world’s largest defense contractors, $4.5B annual revenue) acquired the two largest German asylum housing operators in 2023/24: European Homecare (120+ facilities) and ORS. Serco now runs 130 facilities in Germany — one in five state-owned reception centers.
Gross margins per internal documents (ZDF investigation 2024): 45.1% at the Meßstetten center, 49.8% at Bernkastel-Kues. Serco revised its profit forecast upward after the acquisition.
Serco’s largest shareholders: JPMorgan, Vanguard, Fidelity, BlackRock.
The business model: More migration = more housing demand = more contracts = higher stock price. Serco’s share price rose 41% in 2024. A defense contractor that profits from wars AND from the refugees those wars create.
Sources: ZDF (Nov 15, 2024): High profits from asylum housing · SIPRI Top 100 (2022) · Company filings
③ 530 NGOs — YOUR TAXES PAY FOR THE BOATS
According to a parliamentary inquiry (Drucksache 20/8838), the 2024 federal budget directly or indirectly funds approximately 530 Germany-based NGOs. Here is what German taxpayers are paying for:
• Sea rescue NGOs receive ~€2M/year from the Foreign Ministry (under Green Party minister Baerbock) to pick up migrants off the coast of Libya and bring them to Europe. Every person brought ashore costs German taxpayers an estimated €275,000–€600,000 over their lifetime (Danish Finance Ministry data: asylum migrants −€475,000, Horn of Africa −€600,000).
• €2.23 billion for “humanitarian aid abroad” — while German schools crumble, bridges collapse, and the Bundeswehr can’t equip its soldiers.
• €435 million for the Development Ministry’s “Refugees and Host Countries” initiative.
• €5.8 billion in “domestic refugee costs” that Germany reports to the OECD as “development aid” — even though every cent is spent inside Germany. This accounting trick makes Germany look generous internationally while hiding the true cost domestically.
Meanwhile, the same government spends your taxes on:
• €44 million for bicycle lanes in Peru (BMZ, confirmed by the ministry itself)
• €500,000 for “gender training for civil society organizations” in a Chinese province
• A “positive masculinity” project in Rwanda (BMZ-funded, run by German churches)
• €4.7 billion in development aid to India — a country with its own space program
Total NGO and aid ecosystem: over €8.4 billion per year. Bicycle lanes in Peru. Gender workshops in China. And €62 billion per year to house, feed, and police the consequences at home.
Sources: Bundestag Drucksache 20/8838 · Federal budget 2024 Foreign Ministry · BMZ press release April 2025 · BMZ FAQ (confirmed €44M Peru, €500K gender China, Rwanda project) · Cicero Oct 2023 · Danish Finance Ministry 2021 (lifetime costs)
The numbers are public. The profiteers have names. This page shows both.
THEY WERE WARNED
“Anyone who wants to increase the number of Muslims in Germany accepts an increasing threat to our domestic peace.”
— Helmut Schmidt, Chancellor 1974–1982 — “Außer Dienst” (2008), p. 236
“Sarrazin has been proven right with his statements.”
— Friedrich Merz, CDU party leader (October 2023) — became Chancellor in 2025. Reversed nothing.
Schmidt warned in 2008. Sarrazin warned in 2010. Merz admitted it in 2023. Since then: 6.7 → 14 million foreigners. 105,000 → 292,000 naturalizations. Birth rate from 1.39 to 1.23. 15 years. The problem wasn’t solved. It was multiplied.
Maybe you’re thinking: “This can’t happen in Germany.” Here are three countries that thought the same.
PART 6 — WHAT HAPPENED IN OTHER COUNTRIES
Three warnings from history
Critics say “Germany is abolishing itself” is an exaggeration. But the demographic shift has already happened in other countries — with devastating consequences. South Africa, Lebanon, and Kosovo show the same pattern: a group with a lower birth rate loses the majority, the young and qualified emigrate, and past a certain point, the process becomes irreversible. In not a single historical case did it end well.
🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA — What happens when a minority shrinks
Whites were never the majority in South Africa — but they held economic and political control. Since the end of apartheid in 1994, over 400,000 whites left. Today: the highest crime rate in the world. Unemployment at 42.6%. Whites are systematically disadvantaged through “Black Economic Empowerment.” Farm murders are routine. Those who can afford it live behind walls and razor wire. Parallel to Germany: a shrinking group with a low birth rate, whose young and qualified emigrate.
🇱🇧 LEBANON — From majority to minority
Christians: 1932: 51% → 1975: ~44% → 2024: ~31%
When Christians were still the majority, Lebanon was the wealthiest and most stable country in the Middle East — called “the Switzerland of the Orient.” Then the Muslim population grew faster (+785% since 1932 vs. Christian +174%). What followed: civil war 1975–1990. Then Hezbollah. Today: a failed state. Parallel to Germany: higher birth rate of the growing group + emigration of the shrinking group.
🇽🇰 KOSOVO — A minority that nearly vanished
Serbs: 1948: 24% → 1991: 10% → 2024: ~4%
The Albanian-Muslim population grew through higher birth rates. The Serbs emigrated. Result: civil war, ethnic cleansing, unilateral declaration of independence in 2008. Serbian Orthodox monasteries — some UNESCO World Heritage sites — now stand under NATO protection. Parallel to Germany: demographic shift + emigration = loss of political control.
✝️ CHRISTIAN PERSECUTION WORLDWIDE
Numbers from Open Doors (World Watch List 2026, published January 2026):
• 388 million Christians are persecuted worldwide for their faith
• 4,849 Christians were killed for their faith between October 2024 and September 2025 (Open Doors)
• The NGO Intersociety documented for just the first 220 days of 2025: 7,087 Christians killed in Nigeria — an average of 32 per day
• Open Doors counts more conservatively: 3,490 in Nigeria (72% of all Christians killed worldwide)
• 5,202 Christians raped, sexually abused, or forced into marriage
• 3,302 Christians kidnapped or missing
• 224,129 Christians forced to flee their homes
• The majority of the 50 countries with the worst persecution are in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Islamic world
• In Afghanistan: Not a single open church since the Taliban takeover
Intersociety estimates: Since 2009, at least 125,000 Christians have been killed by jihadists in Nigeria and 19,100 churches destroyed. US President Trump designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” in November 2025 and ordered airstrikes against jihadists on Christmas Day 2025.
THE PATTERN IS ALWAYS THE SAME
Stage 1: One group has more children. The other emigrates.
Stage 2: The majority shifts. With it, political power.
Stage 3: The new majority changes the laws in its favor.
Stage 4: Past a certain point, there is no going back. And that point comes long before the 50% mark is reached.
Sources: Statistics South Africa 2025 · Wikipedia Demographics Lebanon/Kosovo · Open Doors World Watch List 2026 (14.01.2026) · Intersociety Report August 2025
This is not a conspiracy theory. It’s all at the Federal Statistical Office.
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What does “Germany is abolishing itself” mean in numbers?
According to the Federal Statistical Office (Microcensus 2024): 14.06 million foreigners live in Germany. 25.2 million people have a migration background. The native German birth rate is 1.15 — far below the 2.1 needed for a stable population. 270,000 Germans emigrate annually, 75% of them graduates. Meanwhile, 517,000 foreigners arrived (net) and 292,000 were naturalized in 2024. The gap widens every year.
When will native Germans become a minority?
At current Destatis data (birth rate 1.15, net immigration +430,000/year, naturalizations rising), the tipping point is projected for the late 2050s. Even an immediate immigration stop wouldn’t halt the process — differential birth rates and ongoing naturalizations continue it from within. Among children under 5, the migration background share is already 42.6% nationwide.
What does immigration cost German taxpayers?
Federal asylum costs 2024: €28.4 billion. Welfare: €51.7 billion, 63.5% of recipients with migration background. Prof. Raffelhüschen (University of Freiburg) estimates long-term total costs at €5.8 trillion. Denmark — the only country tracking costs by origin — reports €4.2 billion net annual costs for non-Western immigrants. Lifetime cost per asylum migrant: −€475,000.
Where do the data on this page come from?
All data comes from official, publicly accessible sources: Federal Statistical Office (Microcensus, AZR, birth/migration/naturalization statistics), Federal Criminal Police (PKS 2024), Federal Employment Agency (welfare statistics), Federal Finance Ministry, Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), and international sources including the Danish Finance Ministry and Open Doors. The hypothetical crime rate calculation by migration background is transparently labeled as our own estimate based on public data. All 33+ sources are listed below.
ALL SOURCES — VERIFY FOR YOURSELF
Every number verifiable. No ads. No newsletter. No product. Last updated: March 2026